Republicans Could Retake the Senate This Fall. but Can They Keep It in 2016?
Chris makes a cogent point - the midterm victory might be pyrrhic for the GOP.
Yes, they technically need six seats for the majority. However, GOPers probably need to pick up in the neighborhood of eight or even nine seats in order to ensure themselves a fair shot at holding the Senate for more than two years.
Here’s why: There are 23 Republican seats up compared to just 10 for Democrats in 2016. (This is the class that got elected in 2010, a great year to be a Republican.) And it’s not just the raw numbers. Much like how the geography of the Senate map in 2014 favors Republicans, there are a number of GOP-held seats in traditionally Democratic states in 2016. Republicans in Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all would have to run for reelection in a presidential year in states that President Obama won in 2008 and 2012. Then there are potential retirements in places such as Arizona (John McCain) and Iowa (Charles E. Grassley). (Before we get angry calls, yes, we know that Grassley and McCain have hinted at running again. But 2016 is a long way off. And McCain will be 80, Grassley 83.)
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